India can still be eliminated from the T20 semi-final race

India currently has 4 points from 2 matches with a healthy NRR of +2.4.

Afghanistan's victory over Australia has complicated the standings, leaving all four teams with a chance to qualify heading into the final round of matches.

India's task is straightforward: they need to defeat Australia in their final match. This would secure their place in the semi-finals, making the result of the Afghanistan vs. Bangladesh match irrelevant to their qualification.

Australia currently has 2 points from 2 matches with an NRR of +0.22. To qualify, Australia must defeat India in their final match. Even a narrow loss could keep them in contention, depending on other results. If Australia loses narrowly to India, they would need Bangladesh to defeat Afghanistan and hope that the NRRs favour them over Afghanistan and possibly Bangladesh.

Afghanistan also has 2 points from 2 matches but a negative NRR (-0.65). If India defeats Australia and Bangladesh defeats Afghanistan, all three teams (India, Afghanistan, and Bangladesh) would be tied on 2 points each. In this case, NRR would become crucial. Afghanistan would need a significant win over Bangladesh to improve their NRR and potentially surpass Australia's NRR if Australia loses to India.

Bangladesh is yet to secure a point from 2 matches with a poor NRR of -2.48. To qualify, Bangladesh would need to defeat Afghanistan by a substantial margin to improve their NRR significantly. They would also need Australia to lose to India and hope that the resultant NRRs favour them over both Afghanistan and possibly Australia.

Despite being undefeated, India could be eliminated if they lose to Australia and if Bangladesh defeats Afghanistan by a significant margin. If India loses to Australia and Bangladesh wins by enough to improve their NRR significantly, it could lead to a situation where India's NRR drops below that of both Afghanistan and possibly Bangladesh, depending on other results.

India's qualification is mostly secure if they win against Australia. However, any loss to Australia combined with a favourable outcome for Bangladesh against Afghanistan could see India eliminated based on NRR calculations. The scenario hinges on the results of the India vs. Australia and Bangladesh vs. Afghanistan matches, with NRR likely playing a critical role in determining the semi-finalists from Group 1.

Thus, while India is in a strong position, their fate in the T20 World Cup 2024 hinges on their performance against Australia and the outcomes of other crucial matches in their group.